LiveJournal Project: May 2002

Month 2 of 79 (sort of).

Date: 2002-05-03 13:50
Subject: hahaha...
this is excerpted from an interview with Mike Tyson...

"You know what I mean. I may like to fornicate more than other people -- it's just who I am. I sacrifice so much of my life, can I at least get laid? I mean, I been robbed of my most of my money, can I at least get (oral sex) without the people wanting to harass me and wanting to throw me in jail?"

in other news... looks like the month of may is going to be full of adventure. off to canada next weekend for a couple days, then going to albuquerque the following weekend. the weekend after that i'm having eye surgery, so i'll be lying there in the doctor's office scared shitless for an hour or so. i don't think that has quite kicked in yet, but i'm tired of wearing glasses and can't do contacts, so bring on the LASIK. oh yeah, and i still have a paper to write that's due on tuesday. where's the motivation?
Music: Midnight Oil - What Goes On
Mood: amused

Date: 2002-05-04 17:28
Subject: the count of ravyn cristo?
Quiz time... -Ed.
Quiz name: Which Royalty Are You?
Result: Count
What's it mean? I have no idea. Maybe I'm good with numbers.
Music: Enya - Lord of the Rings (Novaane Mix)
Mood: content

Date: 2002-05-05 03:11
Subject: money musings and ravyn ramblings
it's been a low-key day. went to my stepdad's retirement party, which consisted of dinner at a pretty decent italian restaurant in north tempe (locascio's, if you're interested, although my personal favorite would have to be ruffino, in ahwatukee) and then an exceedingly lame magic/illusionist show at casino arizona. thankfully, my parents have some (all of 2!) friends that are closer to my age, so i didn't have to be the only person under 40 at the little gathering. anyway, some thoughts, presented in familiar stream-of-consciousness ravyn ramblings.

a natural question that people tend to ask when they meet someone new is "what do you do for a living" or some variant thereof. as if our jobs define who we are. but that's a rant for another day. what i find more perplexing is trying to explain to these people (most of whom are in their 40s and 50s, working standard 9-5 jobs for some pathetic salary, just as they've done all their lives) that while i technically have a "job" it's not exactly a "real" job and that it's more of a really well-paying joke. don't get me wrong, i do occasionally have to do some work, but i make an appearance at the office 3 or 4 days a week for maybe 4-6 hours at a time and probably pull in more cash than all the people at dinner, combined. all of this without dealing drugs or any other such illegal activity.

it's hard to tell someone that without sounding like an arrogant prick, or like you're boasting, neither of which i ever intend to do, but sometimes i think maybe it comes across that way. i dunno. fact is, i'm one exceedingly lucky and fortunate motherfucker that managed to be in the right place at the right time with the right set of skills, and it turned out far better than i could've ever imagined. i've been thinking about this for awhile now - i think vegas started the thought process, and we were talking about vegas at dinner tonight, and someone made the comment about betting $20 at the blackjack tables. my mom, sitting across from me, made a bit of a snicker (you know, the "ha, that's pocket change" kind of snortle) as she looked at me, at which point i was coerced into explaining my trips to vegas. (which, for those of you that don't know me, have been known to be filled with some rather insane blackjack runs.)

anyway, where i'm going with all of this... they say that money changes people. and i'm sure that's true to a certain extent. imagine the guy who's been poor all his life who suddenly wins the lottery for $100 million. is that going to change his life, and probably his personality? most definitely. growing up, we were firmly entrenched in the lower-middle class - it was just my mom and i, you know, the standard single-parent business. in the last couple years, i've flipped my socioeconomic status on its ear. and i wonder how it's affected my personality - in some ways, i'm still a cheap s.o.b. that doesn't like to spend money, and in others, i'm nonchalant about it and don't really care what i spend on something if it's something i like/want and i have the money. maybe that's no different than before, except that now my means are greater so i'm able to be indifferent about spending larger amounts. but, for example, when i drop some cash in vegas and one of my friends makes the comment that i'm spending in a weekend more than he makes in a month, or when my mom tosses out the remark at dinner that everyone's salary (at dinner) is pocket change compared to what i make, i'm not really sure how i'm supposed to feel. i usually just shrug it off, but i wonder if that makes me look like more of a pretentious asshole. blah. i remember growing up i used to say that it wasn't money that was the root of all evil, but lack of money. now i start to understand a little more of the original proverb.

and now i'm sure that most or all of you that might be reading this are going to say something to the effect of "dude, i wish i had that problem." yeah, maybe. i think it just goes to show that no matter how good things are in life, there're always ways in which they could be better. i think in this regard, at least when my family isn't involved, cory's advice is probably the best. just don't talk about it. don't tell people what you do, don't tell them how much you make or flash mad amounts of cash (which i don't do anyway - anyone that's been to my house will know that it's not full of ridiculous expensive crap - i have hand-me-down and second-hand furniture) and just give a standard generic answer. kinda like when people ask you "how ya doin?" and you just give them the usual "ah, i'm ok" or some other three word answer.

more stream of consciousness... do people really care how you're doing, and if so, would they rather you say that you're well or that life sucks? after all, if you bitch about your relationship or your job or some other shitpile in your life, well, most everyone has one of those, and they can identify and commiserate with you, or if they're assholes, they can use your situation to feel better about themselves as they think "ha! poor fucker, better you than me." but if you say "hey, life is good, i can't complain about anything and it's all going well" do they share in your joy and contentment or do the seeds of jealousy get planted? this reminds me of a comment that mark made one time in which he noted that we all seem to say only the bad things about our significant others (well, except for cory, who for the past several months has nothing but good stuff to say about sal).

do we really wish for each others happiness? do we invent misery where it doesn't exist in order to commiserate with other misery that we perceive coming from our friends? i wonder, sometimes, if people are actually happier with their lives than they let on, but they mask their contentment for some reason. or do we just find it easier to see all the shit that life throws our way and fail to realize that maybe it's not so bad?

the more of this world i see, the less i understand. anyway, i've written far more here than i had originally intended, and all of this after i had said i was going to go to bed. maybe that piracetam is starting to kick in.
Music: Iris - Danger is the Shame
Mood: weird

Time: 03:35
Subject: the "if project, may 2002
i did this once before, and even though i've claimed twice already that i'm going to bed, morpheus has yet to figure out how to work the garage door opener, and thus i remain coherent. so here's may's topic:

"If family or friends had issues with the one you are romantically involved with, would you listen? How much influence would you allow others to have on your relationship?"

how fitting is this...everyone i've ever been in a relationship with has run afoul of someone in the friends n' family posse, whether it be my mother thinking that stephenie was just really "weird", or melissa thinking that chantal was just after my money, or virtually everyone thinking that taeko was just too "normal" for me. in general, i tend to value the input of friends and family, since i've known them (those that i'm close to) for quite awhile and figure that they probably know me better than some new love interest and that they have my best interests at heart, and that perhaps they can view a situation with a more rational and level-headed eye than i can when i'm caught up in the middle of the chaos. i would expect only the best intentions from anyone that i'm close to when making some sort of derogatory comment about the motivations or whatnot of someone that i'm dating, and often i do listen, particularly when what the person is saying resonates with my experience or with the logical side of my brain as it relates to my current g/f. in the end, however, i have to make my own decisions. if i fuck up and get myself into a pickle that i could have otherwise avoided by listening to the advice of a confidant, then so be it. life is about making your own choices and your own mistakes and learning from the paths that go astray.

besides, often our friends and family only hear the bad parts about our love interests. when we're in love, we talk about all the good stuff, but when that initial infatuation wears off and we start bitching, the picture that we paint for friends and family often has a more gray tint to it. those that we're close to often only learn about those that we're dating through lenses that we provide, so if we do nothing but bitch, then it seems only logical that we're likely to be warned that maybe it better to be dating someone else, no?
Music: Iris - Twilight
Mood: awake

Date: 2002-05-06 10:39
Subject: i love the smell of quizzes in the morning
dunno about this one...
Quiz name: Find your element
Result: Illusion (?)
What's it mean? No clue.
you know, i don't even play rpgs, but this one seems pretty accurate...
Quiz name: Find your Role-Playing Stereotype
Result: Anti-hero
What's it mean? Beats me.
anyway... 'tis monday morning, and i'd rather be back in bed, but the appliance guy is coming with a microwave sometime in the next hour or so, and i've got approximately 30 hours to finish this paper that i've been bitching about for time immemorial. i don't know what the hell possessed me to go back to school. oh yeah, boredom. that was it. but fuck, i think i know more about terrorism than i ever really cared to. =/
Music: Remy Zero - Save Me
Mood: tired

Date: 2002-05-07 00:17
Subject: break time...
not that i really have anything interesting to say, but the paper is flowing nicely. nothing gets things done like the last minute and a little Sammy to get the blood flowing. =)

and a quiz, courtesy of miss amanda. apparently we're the same on this one, although having never seen the movie, i have no idea what this is supposed to mean.
Quiz name: What Never-Ending Story Character Are You?
Result: Nothing
What's it mean? Who the fuck knows?! And who the hell is this amanda person I keep referencing?
Music: Sammy Hagar - High Hopes
Mood: energetic

Time: 14:39
Subject: done!
yeah, the paper is done, i'm off to turn it in, and the semester is fuckin' over! weeeeeeeee!!! i had a request to post my paper here so that someone could read it, and so here it is, without footnotes and citations. one thing worth noting - i believe that the ending of this paper is somewhat weak, and i could have expanded and gone into more detail, but i'm at the point where i really don't give a shit anymore, and this is good enough to preserve my A for the semester.

note, this is a rather long essay.

Religious Terror: Separate but Not Equal
Religion has long been a driving force in human affairs and the evolution of culture and civilization around the world. Unfortunately, this omnipresent influence has not always manifested in benevolent ways, and despite the prohibition against taking human life that is common to virtually all mainstream belief systems, hundreds of thousands of people have either been killed or taken up arms in the name of a higher power. Terrorists, too, have emerged from a religious background, either of their own design, such as the Japanese cult, Aum Shinrikyo, or invoked their own interpretations of a mainstream faith, as in the case of Islam and Osama bin Laden's organization, al-Qaida, or Christianity, manipulated and appropriated by an American survivalist group, the Covenant, Sword, and Arm of the Lord (CSA). Some terrorism experts believe that groups such as these, motivated by extremist beliefs and an apocalyptic struggle of good versus evil, pose a more immediate and virulent threat than their more obviously politically-motivated and rational counterparts and thus need to be examined under a separate lens. This is an accurate assessment. In this essay I compare and contrast three terrorist organizations which rely on religion as a primary motivator: Aum Shinrikyo, al-Qaida, and CSA, discussing the distinguishing factors that are common to these groups which warrant special consideration. This essay is thus divided into three parts. The first section contains background information on each group and its recent activities. The second discusses commonalities and differences between the three groups, and the final section delineates the factors which make these and other religiously-motivated terrorists different and worthy of special consideration.

Background Information

Aum Shinrikyo
Prior to the 1995 attack on the Tokyo subway, Aum Shinrikyo was little more than a minor blip on the terrorism radar screen with a reputation for "insularity, aggressive recruiting, and at times confrontational behavior."
Founded as a religious sect in 1987 by former yoga teacher Chizuo Matsumoto (who then adopted the moniker Shoko Asahara), Aum grew rapidly over the next eight years, reaching a total membership of over 40,000 people worldwide, including 10,000 in Japan, an estimated 30,000 in Russia, and the rest scattered around the United States, Europe, and elsewhere. As a result of this considerable constituency and the cult's emphasis on the recruitment of young, educated professionals, Aum's wealth skyrocketed. Members donated considerable amounts of money, and the cult took advantage of tax breaks for religious organizations as it developed a network of businesses in several different industries, from computer stores to restaurants. At its peak in 1995, Aum's assets were reportedly in the range of $1 billion.

Structurally, Aum was controlled autocratically by its charismatic and dictatorial leader, Asahara, with a set of approximately 1,400 hard-core adherents who had turned their lives and assets over to the cult and lived at the Aum facilities. It is from this group of zealots that Asahara's advisors were drawn, and it is also this group which provided the manpower for Aum's terrorist and criminal activity. Most of the outside members were simply "innocent" followers that were unaware of the more violent tendencies of the inner circle.

From an ideological standpoint, Aum and Asahara were primarily concerned with the attainment of supernatural powers and the coming of Armageddon. "Asahara was obsessed with a prophetic vision that a great cataclysm would soon engulf the world, and he spoke with growing frequency about the inevitability of a great apocalyptic war." Although the prophecies as to the exact nature of the coming conflict and the transpiration of its events tended to vary, the most likely end result, according to Asahara, would be the rise of Aum from the ashes of global destruction, a necessary outcome for the world, given that "contemporary society was hopelessly decadent and beyond reform."

This disdain for society and megalomaniacal worldview did not initially lend itself to violence, however as Aum became more and more preoccupied with the coming Armageddon and largely ignored in a parliamentary election, its leaders took on an ends-justify-the-means approach in dealing with outsiders, governmental officials, and others that were viewed as obstructions to the cult's plans. Starting with small-time assassinations of opposition figures and gradually escalating into conspiracies to murder judges involved in a land-fraud case in which Aum was the defendant, Aum eventually expanded their efforts to attempted attacks with chemical and biological weapons in the hope of causing mass casualties and helping to bring about Asahara's foretold apocalypse. Initially, these attacks were poorly executed and without success, but that changed in 1995 with the sarin gas attack on the Tokyo subway. After the attack, the Japanese government struck back with full force, arresting over 400 cultists, including Asahara, seizing equipment and assets, and ultimately rescinding the cult's religious status. In addition, investigations into the cult's operations were initiated by agencies in Australia, Germany, Russia, and the United States.

Al-Qaida
Al-Qaida is a transnational terrorist organization which funds and orchestrates the activities of Islamic militants worldwide. Created by wealthy exiled Saudi militant Osama bin Ladin, it was a follow-on product of the Afghan resistance against Soviet occupation in the 1980s, and many of its core members are former mujahideen soldiers. According to an Arab security service, al-Qaida has approximately 2800 members spanning several Arab nationalities, although it is generally believed that an exact membership tally is unknown even to bin Ladin himself. Following the US-led military action in Afghanistan, intended to root out al-Qaida's training camps and neutralize as much of its capability as possible, it is difficult to assess its current strength or the integrity of its communications and command infrastructure or its worldwide penetration, but it is still believed that the group has "sleeper" cells placed in several states around the world, assimilated into and undetected by their host societies.

Funded mainly by bin Ladin's fortune, and funding from sympathizers around the world, al-Qaida also derives financial support from international businesses and possibly the heroin trade in Afghanistan. Bin Ladin's personal fortune is estimated to be around $300 million, and "a substantial portion of this money is reportedly deposited in accounts under false names in Western Europe, and is hidden among the funds of several charitable organizations, such as the Muslim World League (MWL), the International Islamic Relief Organization (IIRO), and Islamic cultural centers in Europe, including one in Milan, Italy."

The organization's primary goal is the overthrow of what it views as heretical and overly secular governments of Muslim states and the adoption of Sharia (Islamic law). The West and the United States in particular, is seen by al-Qaida as the chief obstacle to their desired reform and thus takes its place at the top of al-Qaida's target list. In recent years, terrorist activity which has been attributed to bin Ladin and al-Qaida has been on the rise, including the 1995 assassination attempt on Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, the bombings of the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998, and the attack on the USS Cole in November 2000, culminating with the September 11, 2001 destruction of the World Trade Center. Following the latest attacks, massive military and diplomatic measures were taken by the United States in an attempt to shut down al-Qaida and disrupt its worldwide network, and as these operations are still under way, it is at this point difficult to judge how successful they will be.

The Covenant, Sword, and Arm of the Lord (CSA)
Originally a paramilitary survivalist group with a Christian Identity ideological background, CSA was founded in 1971 by fundamentalist minister James Ellison, who established a settlement near the Arkansas-Missouri border. Believing that he was "creating a place of refuge for those fighting the worshippers of false gods, he invited seekers, drug addicts, and ex-convicts to join him at his camp." His small community of followers, approximately 100 people, became a violence-prone purveyor of anti-Semitism and racism under the guise of being a church. They built several factories for manufacturing grenades, silencers, and related firearm accessories, and published a series of books derogatory to Jews, blacks, pagans, and other such "undesirables" that they believed were a threat to their "Christian, white race" and hosted "training seminars" in which participants paid $500 or more to study the "Christian martial arts."

The Christian Identity movement, of which CSA was a part, traces its roots back to the Puritan movement of the seventeenth century, and is predicated upon the belief that there were two creations in the book of Genesis. The first was that of white Aryans, those of Scandinavian-German-Teutonic-British decent for whom it is believed that Jesus was sent to Earth. Jews, products of the second creation, are considered to be children of Satan, an anti-Christ race. Blacks and other non-whites are considered "pre-Adamite peoples, halfway between apes and human beings." In addition to this highly prejudicial worldview towards differing people, CSA holds strong distrust towards the federal government couched in the millenarian belief that the present age is corrupt and that the coming apocalypse will herald a new, better age, and that they can "hasten the Messiah's return by killing sinners, 'mud people,' and Jews."

From 1983 to 1985, CSA engaged in a wide variety of criminal activities, raising money for future plans through counterfeiting, fraud, and a string of robberies which yielded over $4 million. What began as larceny grew more violent, and following the 1983 Aryan Nations conference, "CSA leaders engaged in a series of criminal activities, including the firebombing of an Indiana synagogue, the arson of a Missouri church, and an attempted bombing in Missouri of a pipeline supplying Chicago with natural gas." In 1985, CSA member David Tate shot and killed a Missouri state trooper, which ultimately led to a federal raid on the CSA compound. After a three-day standoff, residents of the camp surrendered, and FBI agents seized hundreds of weapons, bombs, an anti-tank rocket, and thirty gallons of potassium cyanide allegedly intended to poison the water supply of an unnamed city. Later that year, several group leaders were convicted or pled guilty to a number of federal charges and were sentenced to lengthy prison terms, thus effectively breaking the group.

Common Threads and Differing Paths
A close analysis of these three groups uncovers several striking similarities, but also some rather notable differences. Five key areas will be examined: group structure and leadership, motivation/ambition, resources, strategy and tactics, and finally, current threat capacity.

Structure / Leadership
It is in this area that the three organizations are most different. Aside from obvious differences in size, the organizational structure and decision-making hierarchy is also different. Aum, which had approximately 1,400 hardcore devotees that were the operational capital for criminal activities, has a very hierarchically-designed organization, controlled at the top by the iron-fisted and charismatic Shoko Asahara, enforcing decisions with punishment that could include death. Top cult members testified that "only Asahara had the power to order murder, and at one hearing Asahara himself reportedly offered to 'shoulder responsibility for all incidents.'" CSA, with only about 100 members living at Ellison's compound, had a more democratic decision-making process. Ellison was not an autocrat; instead he appointed "Elders" to assist him in making decisions and often delegated key responsibilities to others. Al-Qaida differs from both of these groups; there is a central decision-making authority in bin Ladin and his closest advisors, but the cells in various countries also enjoy a certain amount of autonomy, receiving only limited communication from the command structure and often acting independently of any planned activity.

Analysis of the command and control structures employed by each organization shows that in all three cases, the groups were probably optimally-formed. Ellison, with a small number of dedicated and like-minded followers, most likely did not need to exercise the autocratic discipline of Asahara, and doing so would have likely gone against the group's original stated objective: to "simply be free to exercise our rights the way we want to." Al-Qaida, currently the most watched as well as the most transnationally-scattered of the groups, naturally lends itself to a decentralized command structure where each cell often acts of its own volition with only minimal and necessary input from the highest level of leadership.

Motivation / Ambition
Although all three groups are classified as religious terrorist organizations, it is here where the greatest differences appear. Aum was a paranoid, apocalyptic organization characterized by a wide spectrum of conflicting motivations: "to punish the world it hoped to save; to speed Armageddon, necessary before salvation; to protect Asahara's visionary status by ensuring that his prophecies came to fruition; and to satisfy Asahara's fascination with such [chemical, biological, nuclear] weapons." CSA shared Aum's desire to speed the apocalypse. Members believed that they could accelerate the process by which Armageddon appears by "committing acts of violence and social chaos." In contrast, al-Qaida does not share these cataclysmic views, and instead finds its motivation in a more politically-grounded goal of instituting Islamic law, uniting all Muslims and establishing "a government which follows the rule of the Caliphs." This can only be done, according to bin Ladin, by overthrowing the more secular Muslim governments, eliminating Western influence (particularly on the part of the United States) and eventually removing state boundaries. His 1998 "Declaration of the World Islamic Front for Jihad against the Jews and Crusaders" outlines his grievances: first, that the United States is occupying Muslim Holy Land, specifically, the Arabian Peninsula; second, that the US is slaughtering the Iraqi people; third, US support for Jewish occupation of Jerusalem and the persecution of Muslims.

An interesting item of note is that unlike al-Qaida, which moved immediately to armed insurrection as a means to achieve its political aims, and CSA, which had little in the way of political motivation, Aum did initially attempt to influence Japanese government via the electoral system. In the 1990 Diet elections, Aum fielded 25 candidates, including Asahara himself, but they were largely ignored by the voters. Cameron argues that politics were of limited importance to the cult and that Aum's entry into the political arena was simply a "means of increasing his [Asahara's] power rather than as a furtherance of a political agenda." However, it is also noted that this early humiliation which fueled Aum's paranoia and movement towards more violent action. It is impossible to say what might have happened had Aum's parliamentary candidates been better received, although it does provide some fodder for speculation.

One important similarity that arises at this level of analysis is that all three groups had a keen interest in unconventional weapons. Bin Ladin is quite adamant in his quest for such devices; he has specifically stated that "We don't consider it a crime if we tried to have nuclear, chemical, biological [NBC] weapons. Our holy land is occupied by Israeli and American forces. We have the right to defend ourselves and liberate our holy land." Asahara, aside from having a certain fascination for the destructive power of NBC devices, believed in the necessity of their acquisition to ensure the cult's survival after the coming apocalypse. CSA, on the other hand, simply wanted a way to kill as many people as possible, and believed that the use of potassium cyanide to poison a water reservoir would be a successful tactic.

Resources
All three groups can be considered well-funded, especially when monetary resources are examined at a per-capita level. Although CSA acquired a considerable sum of money via robberies and al-Qaida was believed to have been involved in the international heroin trade, it is worth noting that all three organizations employed legitimate business means in order to generate working capital. CSA manufactured firearms accessories and sold books and pamphlets, Aum operated a wide variety of businesses in Japan, while al-Qaida's corporate reach extended across several nations. Constituent contributions also provided a substantial amount of Aum's funding, while both al-Qaida and CSA obtained material support both from within as well as from external sympathizers. For all three groups, the use of legitimate sources of funding and the operation of businesses provided excellent fronts for their operations and allowed them to maintain a less-conspicuous profile during their recruitment and expansion stages. Keeping assets hidden from enemies and hostile governments was of particular interest to bin Ladin, especially in the wake of the September 11th attacks.

While these groups were well-funded from a financial standpoint, they differ greatly at the level of intellectual capital. In addition to attempting to acquire NBC technology from contacts on the black market and in the former Soviet Union, Aum actively recruited engineers and scientists to work on its NBC weapons program, and built facilities specifically for the development and production of unconventional weapons. Al-Qaida made several attempts to purchase nuclear devices, however it fell victim to the uncertainties of the black market: in both cases, it seems that the material acquired was fake, dipped in radioactive waste in order to fool Geiger counters. Despite what has appeared to investigators to be a relatively sophisticated NBC research program and a rabid desire to develop functional devices, it appears that bin Ladin and al-Qaida still have a long way to go. In this respect, CSA is barely worth mentioning. "When reminded that thirty gallons of cyanide poured into a reservoir would have so diluted that it would not have killed anyone, Noble replied that the group believed that 'God would…make sure the poison got to the town.'"

Strategy / Tactics
Different motivations and ambitions naturally drive the three organizations to pursue different tactics in their attempts to achieve their goals, but some common threads are apparent. The most prominent of these is a trend towards escalation of aggression. All three groups, over the course of their activities, began looking towards causing greater and greater numbers of casualties. Aum began with small-scale assassinations and worked toward attempted large-scale attacks with chemical and biological weapons; CSA's criminal activity started with low-level bombings and attempts to destroy facilities, progressing towards their thwarted attack on city water supplies. Al-Qaida also fits this pattern, moving from embassy bombings and other such attacks to the large-scale event of September 11th.

As noted earlier, there is also a distinct desire on the part of each group to acquire and employ NBC weapons. Although Aum was the only organization of the three which actually carried out a successful attack, the employment of these devices was considered a high priority for all three, and it is likely that if al-Qaida and CSA had been able to continue their activities unabated, they, too, would have eventually been able to launch a successful unconventional-weapons attack.

CSA in particular had no qualms about targeting civilians and installations with no symbolic value: "its sole objective was large-scale murder rather than influencing government policies." Combined with a religious sense of righteousness, group actions were relatively unconstrained. Aum was a bit more selective, going after opposition leaders and judges and other specific targets which tended to be directly related to the group's desire to expand its influence before escalating into indiscriminate attacks on civilians. Al-Qaida distinguishes itself from the other two in this regard; although it has attempted to kill more and more people, civilian or not, with each attack, the targets themselves tend to be highly symbolic: embassies, the USS Cole, and the World Trade Center, and the Pentagon.

Current Threat Capacity
Assessing the current threats posed by these groups is not a trivial undertaking. CSA, although believed to be disbanded as a result of arrests and convictions in 1985, shares its ideology with similar groups still extant around the United States. Whether or not these groups will turn violent on a large scale is difficult to predict. The future of Aum is also undetermined. Following the 1995 sarin gas attack on the Tokyo subway, Japanese authorities arrested hundreds of cult members, seized its assets, and stripped its religious status within the country. Similar investigations were launched around the world in countries where Aum was operating, and it was outlawed completely in Russia. However, despite the ban on its activities, the cult continues to operate in Russia and parts of the former Soviet Union, and in 1998, over 7,000 people attended cultist training seminars. According to Kaplan, Aum remains a viable threat.

Al-Qaida's current operational capacity is perhaps the most difficult to estimate, particularly in the wake of retaliation for September 11th by the United States. If the Administration is to be believed, substantial progress has been made in weakening the group via the freezing of assets, disruption of communication, and arrest and detaining of group members. The Taliban, which ruled Afghanistan and were believed to have been supported by al-Qaida, have been removed from power and a transitional government has been put in place which is, ostensibly, hostile to al-Qaida and terrorist organizations. While all of this is encouraging news which makes excellent fodder for the evening telecast, the decentralized nature of al-Qaida makes it difficult to know exactly how much of the serpent has been killed. Autonomous sleeper cells are no doubt still extant in countries around the world, either awaiting instructions from organizational commanders or planning their own independent strikes.

Separation of Church and State
Ultimately, what the above analysis reveals is that while there are some important differences between the three groups, particularly in terms of structure, degree of success, and level of political motivation, they are more similar to each other than they are different. More importantly, it provides insight into the three key factors which should place religiously-motivated terrorists into a separate level of analysis: perceived righteousness, zeal, and staying power.

Some experts argue that because there is a lack of political motivation, religious terrorists will be more likely to attack civilians indiscriminately and be unwilling to respond to rational negotiations. However, this is a case of false causality. As the cases of al-Qaida, and to a lesser extent, Aum Shinrikyo, demonstrate, even in groups whose primary motivator is religion, there is still often a political undertone. It is not their apoliticality which makes these groups dangerous, it is instead their belief that they are waging a holy war against the infidels, and that they must answer to a higher power. Groups without this religious backing still believe that their cause is just and that they are fighting oppression in the only way that they know how, but they are without that sense of supernatural justification which might lead them to believe that they can get away with employing tactics that might otherwise be considered undesirable.

A second danger factor, however, is in the zeal of the groups' members which is not found to a comparable degree outside the religious world. For example, it is the zeal of the members and their sympathizers which allows these organizations to become quite wealthy. Even non-terrorist religious groups, whether they are cults like the Church of Scientology or established faiths like the Catholic and Mormon churches, derive a large sum of their wealth from the contributions of members. Religious terrorists are no different; because the group members believe so fervently in the cause, they are willing to donate large sums of money, property, and time to the group, at a level unmatched by more secular organizations. In addition, it is religious zeal which, when combined with the aforementioned sense of righteousness, that allows the group to engage in attacks that might otherwise not be launched. A prime example of this would be that of suicide bombing. Islamic militants that are recruited for suicide bombing campaigns are told that they will enter heaven as martyrs, occupying a special place in the afterlife.

Finally, it is important to note that religious organizations tend to have a certain longevity which is not always present in the more secular groups. This is a direct result of the first two factors already discussed, but also caused by a third, more intrinsic element: the nature of religion itself. Humanity has always sought to answer questions about meaning, existence, the afterlife, and other "non-scientific" inquiries that fall under the purview of religion. As the world grows more and more modern, and to many, more and more technological and soulless, there seems to be an increased search for meaning and purpose in life. However, for whatever reason, the mainstream religions seem to be failing in their attempt to provide the answers to these questions, and as a result, the disenchanted masses begin to search elsewhere. For some, this leads them down the path of cults and fringe groups, some of which are, in fact, terrorist. Despite the arrest of group leaders, the pool of potential group recruits only continues to grow. This is in stark contrast to more political causes, which can simply disappear if the group gives up, gets shut down, or manages to obtain a seat at the negotiating table.

When combining these three factors, it is not difficult to see the special threat posed by religious terrorist groups. A perceived sense of righteousness, fueled by fervent supporters from a pool which always remains to feed the group provides an excellent recipe for creating a well-funded, well-organized, and often fearless organization, driven by the sense that it is working in the name of a higher cause. Not many secular terrorist organizations can lay claim to that, and as a result, it follows that religious terrorists warrant special consideration in the debates and analysis.
Music: Default - Deny
Mood: accomplished

Date: 2002-05-09 14:56
Subject: ravyn's adventures in piracetam
i don't really feel like taking the time to explain what piracetam is, so for those of you that don't know anything about it, here's a link that has a bunch of medical research journal articles about what it is and what it does.

clicky clicky

the short answer is that it's a nootropic drug, long used in europe for a bunch of things but not yet approved by the FDA. anyway... as a result of my interest in overclocking the brain and achieving better neural performance, i've been on this stuff for a week now, and today i finally have some interesting results to report.

initially, i started with a daily dosage of 4800mg, taken as 2 pills, 3 times per day. aside from getting a bit of a headache the first time i took it, i didn't really notice much difference other than a bit of insomnia. oddly, though, it wasn't the sort of insomnia where you're tired but just can't get to sleep, it was alert and wakeful insomnia - i'd be sitting there at 3:00 in the morning, fully awake and wanting to do stuff but knowing that i should make an effort to sleep. and then i'd end up waking up about 4 hours later, fully alert. if i'd been smart, i'd have gotten out of bed instead of using the standard excuse of "i don't have to be awake yet" and going back to sleep, only to find that the next time i woke up i was tired and wanted to sleep more. blah.

anyway, i didn't really notice much of a cognitive-function enhancement, so i continued this dosage level for a couple days and then cranked it up a bit, to 4 pills taken 2x a day. at this level, i noticed a common effect that's been reported in some of the anecdotal evidence - increased motivation. i'd think about a particular task that i needed to do or i'd come up with an idea for something that needed to get done, and rather than just sitting on my ass and procrastinating for as long as possible like i usually do, things were getting done rather quickly. i spent 3 hours cleaning up the computer room, rearranging my bookshelf, cleaning up the desk and such- something that i'd been wanting to do for a long time.

so this morning i was thinking about something i'd read in one of the articles, where it noted that a lot of people have to take a high initial "attack" dose of piracetam to feel the effects and then once that happens they can drop the dosage down. wondering if perhaps i'm one of these people, i took one single 4800mg dose before leaving for the office. and now i think i finally understand what this stuff is supposed to do.

for those of you that have tried hallucinogenic drugs, you can probably relate to what i'm saying when i say that colors are more vivid, i see things in greater detail, and there's just a general sort of sensory amplification. not like ecstasy, though, where things are overwhelming, or like acid/shrooms, where everything's distorted and turning into patterns and moving colors - things that normally just "are" ... well, now they ARE. that's the best way i can describe it. i also feel "smarter" - i don't know quite how one can feel an increase in mental capacity, especially since i haven't done shit yet today that requires serious brain function, but there is definitely a sense that the neurons are firing at a higher level than they usually do. too bad i don't have any math problems handy. heh. anyway, it's said that this stuff helps with memory function, so tonight when i go to kung fu we'll see how well this month's form sticks in my brain, and i'll also be curious to see if the effects continue if i drop the dosage back down to 2-3 pills at a time. stay tuned for more.
Music: Tunnel Trance Force Vol. 20 CD2 - Ceremony Mix
Mood: rejuvenated

Time: 19:51
Subject: piracetam and kung fu
i haven't taken any more yet today except for the initial 4800mg dose around 12:30pm, so i'm not entirely sure if there is a causal relationship here, but i just got home from kung fu. this month we're learning a staff form, and today marks the first day in a year that i've seen it. (i saw about half of the form last year and had completely forgotten it.) for the record, i hate weapons forms and i'm not very good at them. anyway, we covered, i'd say, about 2/3 to 3/4 of the total form today (we do one form per month, so it gets broken up into pieces) and i'd say we went over it 3-4 times. now, normally when i first see a form and i'm trying to learn it, it really doesn't stick too well in my brain until the second or third week of the month. but as i was driving home from class i was going over it in my mind, and the whole thing is in there. sure, i can't DO the form very well, but that's an issue for my body to work out - my mind has a good hold on it. related to piracetam? i don't really know. obviously i'm trying to keep my eyes open for any favorable or unfavorable connections, and this would certainly seem to be a good one, but i'm not sure how much i can attribute the results directly to piracetam and how much is caused by remnants of the form being dredged up from the dark corners of long-term memory. ah well, more updates to come.
Mood: curious

Date: 2002-05-10 03:06
Subject: zzzzzz....
i suppose i just wouldn't be me if i didn't have something to say before i crash, so this is tonight's observation. i've not been on livejournal that long, but i've surfed the site many months before i ever created my own account, and read a lot of random entries from people that i'll never meet. and i've come to the realization that there are a lot of seriously depressed and/or fucked up people out there. now, before anybody gets their panties in a wad, i'm probably not talking about YOU. anyway, what raises an eyebrow with all of this is that i guess i never really had a grasp on how much misery and just general unpleasantness there is in the world. yeah, everyone likes to say "life sucks" or some similar phrase, but usually it's just one of those random utterances that gets bandied about when the five-dollar wage slaves at wendy's mcburgerslut fail to include those packets of ketchup we asked for three times already.

has the world degenerated into a gray morass of unpleasantness for 3/4 the population literate enough to understand it? or do we all just like to bitch because there's nothing better to do? i don't suppose that this is a question that i'll ever really be able to answer, because no matter how insignificant a person's problems may seem to someone else, to that person they generally matter a great deal, and we all like to emphasize that our problems are somehow different and special. eh, i shouldn't try to think too hard at 3:00 in the morning.

in other news... psylence pointed me in the direction of something way cool... RoboCode. i used to mess around with something like this a long time ago with an old computer game called Omega, where you'd design tanks and program their AIs to go out and kill each other on the virtual battlefield, and it looks like someone's made a rather popular java version. i was wondering what the hell i could work on this summer that would be cool and keep me occupied, now that i don't have to rant about terrorism anymore.

'tis a good feeling to have the scientific/research elements in my brain waking up again. they've snoozed for far too long.
Mood: sleepy

Date: 2002-05-14 01:15
Subject: take off, eh!
spent the weekend in canada hanging out with chantal, and now i'm back in the desert roasting my arse. and i've got all kinds of thoughts running through my head.

i went to a rave while i was up there - "feel the vibe" by party kid zone productions. the venue was kinda nifty - a warehouse-like building which had been converted into an indoor skate park, with ramps and such, all the things that you might expect to see in a skater building, i suppose. turnout - pretty low... i guess there's some kind of law in calgary that raves can only have up to 250 people without having to get all kinds of permits and pay the city and jump through a bunch of ridiculous hoops. vibe - this is a purely subjective call, but i found it rather lacking. maybe it's because the event was really small, maybe it was because i didn't know anyone there except for chantal and kelly, i dunno. reminded me of the usual vibeless and dull phoenix parties that we've all come to know and despise. music - very different than what you'd get in phoenix, as there was almost no trance. by and large, the music sucked. the track selection by most of the djs was full of rather repetitive and boring selections, and in genres that i'm just not really into. i do have to give mad, mad props to one calgary dj in particular, though - pauly dee - his style is almost exactly what mine is when i'm spinning the harder stuff, so i was happy and danced like a banshee for about an hour.

chantal had her booth set up at this party, selling candy (that's necklaces and bracelets and such made of little plastic beads, for the non-rave-initiated) and glowsticks, and she didn't do too well - which i think was probably due to the small turnout and the lack of "happy" music.

i don't really know what to say about this. she's trying really hard to build a little business here, and i've now had a chance to see first-hand how much time and effort and energy she's putting into it, and i'm really proud of her for that, but the realist (or the cynic, perhaps) in me can't help but have some serious concerns. i think that she's probably selling her stuff way too cheap to be making any sort of profit, because she doesn't really factor in the value of her time in making the stuff or setting up and taking down the booth, or just the time spent sitting there at the party running it. i wonder about the continued viability of such a business in the first place when the powers that be all over north america are cracking down on raves. oh yeah, and she needs a reliable assistant, not that selfish flake of a friend she's currently being used by.

outside of the rave, the rest of the weekend went pretty well. we didn't really do much of anything except hone our horizontal-mambo skills and suffer through mother's day brunch with her family after being up all night at the party. relatively low-key - that's about how these trips usually go, although for once we didn't fight over anything. then again, we didn't really discuss any serious relationship issues, either - every time it seemed that the conversation was headed that direction, chantal managed to switch the topic to something else. i guess that's ok, but eventually we're going to need to make a final decision as to what the future holds. i'm sure that when that day comes, i'll have something to say about it here.

i hope, at least, that if we eventually decide that as a "relationship" things aren't going to work out, we can both be mature enough to remain a part of each other's lives. close friends are priceless.
Music: Rising Star - Clear Blue Moon
Mood: contemplative

Time: 01:20
Subject: oh yeah, one other thing...
this is a question, for anyone who cares to answer it.

if for most of your life you've acted a certain way, either because that's the way you were brought up or that's just what people expected of you, and you start to wonder if perhaps you're doing things wrong and that a different attitude or set of actions would be better, can you change it? or are your behavior and thought patterns too embedded as a part of your core being?

i've read that psychologists say that sometime in your 20s (25, i think) you've pretty much established the sort of person that you're going to be for the rest of your life, but is it really true? can leopards change their spots if they try hard enough? or is the spot-remover only temporary?
Music: Woody van Eyden - Together (m.o.r.p.h. mix)
Mood: contemplative

Time: 14:16
Subject: heh, i couldn't resist
Quiz name: Find your soul type
Results: I am terrifyingly evil
Tsk! Though you're not as hollow as the soulless ones, you're filled with unnecessary hatred and scorn.

Virtues: You have none, honestly. All you want is a friend to torture and harass with you! Admittedly, it sounds fun, but honest to god, you need a hobby. Your favorite pasttimes include: bumping into inanimate objects without apologizing, poking little girls in the tum-tum, and putting plastic snakes in the neighbor's driveway. I'm sorry, but you suck at harassing. Take a tip from me: verbal harassment is teh r0x0rz.

Aspirations: Hitman? Satan?

Quirks: Happy people. You just don't like them, do you?

Factors: What happened in your troubled past? I mean, was your father a llama or is it just one of those things where you were the bad child and your sweet little sister was the only one who came out right (cough, Ali, cough)? That's okay. I understand.

Future: Counseling seems like the best bet for you. Enjoy the sweet, sacred times you'll have on medication.
Music: DJ SHoE - Energetic Aggressions
Mood: calm

Date: 2002-05-15 01:11
Subject: eek...
i can't believe it. i'm listening to an eminem song by choice, and i actually like it. =/
Music: Eminem - Without Me
Mood: shocked

Time: 16:20
Subject: enough!
since i have some time to kill before leaving for kung fu, i thought i'd take this moment to indulge in a bit of a tirade against something which has really been annoying the piss out of me lately.

i'm really growing tired of listening to people complain about their lives and do nothing to effect any change. i fully understand that sometimes there are problems which are caused by resource shortage and other such physical constraints, but it seems to me that we have much more control over our lives than we're willing to admit. why are we so willing to yield the reins to the puppetmasters of fate? are we afraid to take responsibility if we take action and fuck things up, preferring instead to blame them on someone else or on circumstances? it's easy to blame someone else for our own inaction, apparently. it's easy to sit there and be a doormat for other people's assholisms rather than stand up for ourselves and say "fuck you, i won't do what you tell me." i really just don't understand how it's so bloody hard for some people to get their shit in order and take the bullshit which is bothering them and toss it. life's too damn short, and that proverbial bus is waiting just around the corner to mow you down.

here's a little rant excerpt from my old website that's relevant, regarding people that say "i have no choice" and that don't seem to want to take control of their lives.

the bullshit alarm is ringing off the hook. think very carefully about what i'm about to say. IN ANY GIVEN SITUATION, YOU ALWAYS HAVE A CHOICE AS TO HOW TO REACT. every situation that requires us to make a decision entails at least two choices. some of those choices may be less palatable than others, but they are always there. some of the options available to us may come at a high cost, or carry consequences that we do not wish to endure, but that does not dismiss their validity as extant options. by saying "i don't have any choice," a person therefore attempts to absolve hirself of any responsibility for the situation which has arisen. these "no-choicers" believe that they are being forced into taking a particular course of action, and thus they don't need to take any responsibility for the path which has led them to this apparent "no-choice" situation.

the simple fact is that nobody can force you to do something which you do not want to do. even if you're being held at gunpoint and ordered to do something, the person cannot force you to do it. think about this carefully. chances are, if you are being threatened with death, you are likely to do what the person wants. but you are still the one choosing to do so - presumably, you do not want to die and therefore you are choosing to take the action which you believe will not get you shot. the point i'm trying to make here is that every action has consequences, but in the final analysis, it is YOU who makes the decision to act or not to act and how to act.

only you are responsible for your life.

oh yeah... and if jesus saves, why is he always asking for money?
Music: New Model Army & Tom Jones - Gimme Shelter
Mood: bitchy

Date: 2002-05-16 03:20
Subject: star bores: attack of the clowns
just got home from seeing the new star wars movie, and all i can say is, well, it stunk. it was considerably better than episode one, but then again, i think almost anything except 2 hours of nothing but jar jar binks would've been an improvement. overall, though, it was boring. the last half hour was action-filled and somewhat entertaining, but it seems that the whole film up to that point was rather plodding, laborious and simply uninteresting. george lucas simply cannot write worth ass; the dialogue was rather contrived and stale, and the characters, particularly anakin, seemed rather one-dimensional. other disappointments... where was the village massacre? personally, i'd have liked to have seen an enraged anakin skywalker slashing up the raiders that took his mother, but no, we didn't get to see much more than a couple of lost heads and then an immediate cutaway to another scene. come on, we want blood, guts, and violence! i'm sure that lucasfilm and co. are going to make bank, but just as with episode one, there are going to be a lot of people that are probably going to wish that they'd spent their eight bucks somewhere else. i'd rather have seen spider-man again.

anything good about the movie? eh, it was pretty to look at, and yoda's can of whoop-ass was rather amusing. who'da thunk that the little green wrinkled fucker could move like that? damn tweaker. heh.

and how 'bout all those MORONS that spent weeks camping out so that they could be the first in line to see the movie? all i can say is "ha, ha, fuckin' ha!" we bought our tickets online at 10:30pm, drove down to the theater around 11:30, after they'd already let tons of people in, and got good seats- all of this without looking like a bunch of losers who had nothing better to do than sit outside mall entrances for the last two weeks.

to quote ben. this whole thing was recockulous. (say it out loud, it's funny)
Mood: cynical

Time: 04:13
Subject: someone doesn't know how to make quizzes.
this has got to be the single most inaccurate quiz i've ever taken.
Quiz name: Take the 100 Acre Personality Quiz
Result: Kanga
What's it mean? Apparently I'm warm and loving and love kids, given my reaction to the results.
i'm not warm and loving and i hate kids. go figure.

Time: 14:03
Subject: piracetam revisited
had a request from jcurious to give an update on the nootropic experiment. it seems to be going well. i've dropped my dosage to 4 pills, 2x a day. that "wow" feeling that i mentioned a few updates ago, where things seemed to be more vivid and more "present" is sporadic, though. sometimes it kicks in, sometimes it doesn't, although i don't necessarily think that any sort of enhanced sensation is necessary to feel that the stuff is working. part of the problem is that i haven't really had a lot of mentally-taxing tasks to perform in the last week, so i don't have much in the way of quantifiable evidence to measure whether or not there's a definite performance enhancement. it does seem that i've been able to absorb this month's kung fu form a little bit better than usual, although there's the problem of making the body do what the mind can visualize. i need a drug for that. heh.

one thing i have noticed, though, is that the "wow" effect seems to be most often triggered by music. i don't know if this is something that other people experience when trying piracetam, or if it's just a chemical association that my brain makes. i remember back when i tried ecstasy for the first time, afterwards i could sit there at the computer listening to techno and get a bit of the same euphoric rush but without any sort of chemical enhancement. so i don't know if the piracetam is triggering any of the same neural pathways and inducing that sort of association or not.

anyway, i have some code to write, so this concludes today's update.
Music: The Dreamside - This Quest

Time: 14:56
Subject: stupid people make my bunghole angry...
eh, i realize that this is going to be an absolutely stupid post, which will make no sense to anyone on my friends list except for miss amanda, but i must vent my frustration. on a particular mailing list that i subscribe to, there is a certain character we shall call josh. why shall we call him that? because it's his name, duh!

i don't know why this person creates such a desire in me to unleash the kung fu style and beat him into a bloody pulp of submission, but it seems that everything he posts to the list is nothing but inane tripe in which he attempts to make himself appear "hardcore" and somehow cooler than your average pile of peat moss, but fails miserably. you know those people that tell absolutely stupid jokes and then laugh at them until they piss themselves, while everyone else is standing there shaking their heads? josh is one of those... he reminds me of the subject of the song by the offspring, "pretty fly for a white guy" - thinks he's got clues on loan from god but couldn't scrounge up a cool point to save his life.

how did drivel on a mailing list turn into the desire to inflict bodily injury (or at least substantial public humiliation)? 'tis a good question. i think it all started one night at tuesday night goth night where we were both out on the dance floor and for whatever reason, he stopped and decided to stare at me for the last 30 seconds of the song. no, stop thinking that, it was not that "gay-boy-i-want-to-stick-something-in-your-ass" stare... more like the "i'm-staring-you-down-trying-to-instigate-a-ruckus" stare.

while i'm busy completely excoriating this fool, i'm going to have to make a few more comments. first, he looks like a freakin' gorilla. like a reject from planet of the apes or something. something about the facial structure. and while i generally don't like to criticize the way people dance, since that's an expression of their interest in the music, when he gets on the dancefloor he doesn't look hardcore... he looks like a tool.

my friend ana and i discussed the three types of gothic dancers... there's the gothic strut, the sky-is-falling-o-woe-is me dance, and the bruce lee rejects... josh is primarily one of the latter with a bit of gothic strut thrown in from time to time, stomping in time to his own internal metronome rather than the actual beat and throwing his arms around like he's a mechanical robot blocking a happy collection of invisible opponents.

not too many people irritate me merely by their existence, but josh is today's winner. oh yea, i almost forgot... josh, the objective pronoun for referring to oneself is spelled "me" and not "m3". you are not 31337. don't even try.

heh, god, i feel better now. =/
Music: New Model Army - Stranger
Mood: cranky

Date: 2002-05-19 16:14
Subject: two nights in the ghetto
what a wack-ass trip this was. friday afternoon i was sitting here thinking that i really didn't want to go; i've been travelling quite a bit over the past couple months, and i thought that maybe it would be nice to take a weekend off and just rest and be lazy, especially given that i'm having eye surgery on the 24th. but, since i had already bought my ticket and didn't feel like wasting 70 bucks, i packed up and headed down to the airport. destination: albuquerque. why in god's name would i go there? to learn the shaolin original 5 animal form from the grandmaster, of course. having driven through the place a couple times, i certainly wouldn't go there of my own free will for any other reason.

as i'm waiting at the airport, i make a trip to use the facilities, only to be followed into the restroom by some obnoxious guy doing a very white-man's impression of "mama said knock you out" and continuing to sing more stupid lyrics from songs that he probably doesn't know throughout his whole time of liquid excretion. as it turns out, this fool was slated to be on the same flight i was going to be on, except that when he went to board the plane, the gate agent pulled him aside and told him that he would not be flying the friendly skies because he had been deemed "intoxicated". the people waiting nearby to get on the plane started snickering under their breath, as the now ex-passenger had been walking around acting like a moron for the last hour. he proceeded to make a big stink with the gate agent, telling her that he'd only had three beers, that he doesn't do anything bad, and that she was ruining his life. that's like getting pulled over for DUI and telling the officer that you'd only had a few drinks as he's making you walk the line. oops. sucks to be that guy.

the flight itself is bumpy and unpleasant, and eventually leads me to a shuttle bus which takes people to the rental car area. i'm sitting across from a guy who's visibly distressed, like he's just blown a major deal or his wife just caught him in bed with the mailman or something weird like that. strange. the rental they give me has a flat tire, so i finally get another one, read the map and get my directions, and i'm on my way, only to find that the freeway's under construction and my carefully thought-out route to get to my hotel isn't going to work. so i'm lost in albuquerque. i find my bearings and start making my way toward the hotel, and i notice that with each passing block it looks like i'm moving farther and farther into the ghetto. run-down buildings, cheap 25-dollar-a-night hotels, etc, etc.

find the hotel and check in. you know you're in a bad part of town when on the little billboard beneath the hotel name where it advertises rates and cable tv and such it also mentions that they have security on premises. great. so i take my tv remote (given to me by the front desk clerk) and key and go to the room, only to be greeted by a call from the same clerk telling me that she has a message for me. message? huh?? only a few people know i'm in albuquerque anyway, and nobody knows what hotel i'm staying at, and why didn't they just call my cell phone anyway? so i go to the front desk, at which time the manager is arguing with another hotel guest. apparently, his room has a nasty smell in it, and he wants a 25 dollar credit, but the manager (who sounds just like apu from the simpsons) is yelling that he's only getting 20 dollars. ok, fine. take my message (which is an unreadable name and a phone number in los angeles) and leave. back to the room. can't sleep, so i watch the worst movie in the history of humanity - "the guyver" (live action). still can't sleep. finally fall asleep at about 4am after listening to several hours of motorcycles racing down the street, sirens, and nasty blowing wind. oh, and let's not forget the people in the room next to me fucking.

at this point, you might be wondering exactly how in the hell i ended up here - didn't i have the good sense to pick a better hotel? as it turns out, my hotel choosing strategy was determined by one thing. i went on to travelocity, typed in the address of the albuquerque shaolin school and looked for hotels nearest to it. this one came up first. so i booked it. as it turns out, in talking to one of the shaolin students from albuquerque the next day, i was indeed staying in the ghetto, and not only that, she told me that some people had been killed at this very motel that i was staying at. d'oh!! anyone that's ever planning a trip to albuquerque... do not... i repeat, do NOT stay at the travelodge on central ave. =/

went to the form on saturday, and then after hearing about the sordid history of my motel, tried to use my cell phone to call america west and change my flight so i could get my ass back home. no dice. although my phone said i was in a digital area and had full signal strength, i couldn't make any calls or send any text messages, although i did receive a couple just fine. so, i use the room phone, call the airline, but they have no more flights that day. bummer. so, i watch harrison ford say "get off my plane" in air force one, and then i sleep. pack my shit, pay $1.77 to apu motelmanagerian for my 1-800 call, check out and leave. ride another bumpy flight back to phoenix, get my car, and i'm done.

'tis good to be home.
Mood: relieved

Time: 16:37
Subject: and now, some quizzes.
this one fits....
Quiz name: Which Cartoon Cat Are You?
Results: Catbert
What's it mean? I dunno, do you read Dilbert?
...
interesting... dunno how true i'd say it is. sometimes probably more than others.
Quiz name: Which degree of inner turbulence are you?
Results: 6th degree (I wonder how many degrees there were... -Ed.)
Meaning: You are discontent with life and with yourself. You wish it would all go away. In order to prevent spiraling down into a deep pit of despair, you have learned to become apathetic, letting the world go by as though you are not even a part of it. You need to learn to seek yourself and not dwell on all that is wrong with the world. Your song is Losing Time. Not sure about the song - I think that's a song from Iris - but the description here is far more true today than it was in 2002. -Ed.

Date: 2002-05-22 22:43
Subject: stolen from moderatrix, who thus ripped it from illuminatispy
People on my friends list: 12
Whom I've met in person: 10
To whose house I've been: 4
Who've been to my house: 6
Whose full name I know offhand: 8
Whom I've known more than 3 years: 7
With whom I've lived: 2
Who are exes: 0
Whom I've 'done': 0
Whom I would do (If I was either sex and single): 1
Who live outside my country: 0
On whom I have a secret crush: 0
Mood: bored

Date: 2002-05-24 00:17
Subject: don't MAKE me get my flying monkey!
yeah yeah, not much news today. tomorrow i'm going in for lasik. zappity zap zap, make my glasses disappear! =) the nerves haven't set in yet, but i'm sure that when i'm lying on the table with my eyeball clamped open, staring into the business end of a rather large laser apparatus, there will be a certain measure of panic that kicks in. in any case, i'll post an update here after it's all said and done and give a play-by-play for anyone that might care.
Quiz name: Which monkey are you?
Results: I think it's the hear-no-evil monkey
Meaning: Uh...
Mood: content

Date: 2002-05-25 13:23
Subject: flapped and zapped!
it's now about 24 hours, give or take, since i went under the laser. the whole process took about three hours, from arriving at the eye clinic until the time i left, with maybe about an hour's worth of that time spent in the actual surgery area, and even less of that actually getting it done. so here's how it works and what it felt like. after filling out the requisite forms and asking the doctor that would be doing the actual surgery a few last-minute questions, i went back into the surgery area. got my spiffy hair cap and they gave me three pills - a valium, a demerol, and some anti-nausea thing. all of this, presumably, is to relax me so i don't panic or whatever when i'm actually in there. about 30 minutes later, they must be thinking that the pills have kicked in, so i go back to the laser room for step 1. they take pictures of my eyes. no problem. it feels a little weird having someone hold your eyelids open while they do this part, but it's quick and painless.

step 2: make the flaps. in standard lasik, this is done by first clamping the eye open, then attaching a suction ring to hold the eye in place, at which time the surgeon takes a blade and slices a tiny flap in the cornea's protective cover. at the clinic that i went to, they now have a new procedure which removes the need for a human-controlled blade. it costs a little bit extra, but as someone whose biggest worry about this whole thing was doctor with blade in hand coming at my eyeball, i consider the extra money well spent. instead of a blade, they have a computer-controlled laser (different from the one that actually does the reshaping) which makes the flap. it takes about 60 seconds per eye, once they've got the eye clamp and suction ring on. from a physical discomfort view, this is the most unpleasant part of the process. after applying numbing drops to the eye and clamping it open (not too bad) they put on the suction ring (this ain't fun) and boom, the flap is made. once that suction ring is on, you really can't see much of anything, so about all you do is sit there and breathe and try to relax as best you can. they do, believe it or not, actually have people there to hold your hand if you're freaking out, and for this part of the procedure i'd say it's rather useful. if they're not careful when they remove the eye-clamp, it does hurt a bit, sort of like what it feels like when you pull tape off of skin with some hair on it, but it's not a sharp pain or anything, more like a quick sensation that you weren't expecting.

after the flaps are made, you go back and rest for about 10 minutes with your eyes closed, and then they lift the flaps. personally, i thought this was the worst part of the process. it wasn't uncomfortable like the flap-making, because there's no suction ring, but from a mental point of view i found it really unnerving. they clamp your eye open and use some sort of implement to lift up the flaps that they just made, with the flaps raised, your vision gets really funky, and with the bright lights they're using to see what they're doing, it's all a bit unsettling. but like i said, no physical discomfort.

finally, it's laser time. you lie down on the table, they position you in place, clamp your eye open one last time, and you're told to look at a blinking red light. the laser (at least the one they used on me) then starts talking to you. it says when it's acquired your eye (lock-on target!) and then they fire it up and it counts down the number of seconds remaining in a somewhat soothing, if mechanical, female voice. again, total laser time was about 45-60 seconds per eye. you can hear the laser zapping away and there is a slight smell of burning tissue. apparently this freaks some people out, but it didn't really bother me. laser done, lower the flaps, and that's all, folks.

after another brief resting period, they check your eyes one last time to make sure the flaps are properly reseated, give you some eye drops and instructions for their use, and some nifty goggles that you have to wear while sleeping for the next week, and you're good to go. overall, i'd have to say that this was a lot better (in terms of my own panic reflexes and actual physical discomfort) than i was expecting - i'd say there's only about 10-15 minutes total that your eyes are clamped open, although maybe i'm lowballing that guess because time seemed to pass quickly.

aftereffects... i've noticed three things, all of which they say are normal for the first week or so. sometimes my eyes feel like there's something in them, like a grain of sand or something. so i have artificial tears for that. no big deal. my eyes are also really light-sensitive right now, and staring at this screen while i type this update is kinda hard. and finally, the quality of my vision does appear to fluctuate a little, especially when it comes to changing focus from far to near - it seems a little slow at this point. i went for my post-op visit this morning, and currently my vision is 20/25, which they said is really good for the first day and will improve over the next week. with my old glasses, my vision was 20/13, so we'll see if it gets that good in the end. but even if it doesn't get much better than it is now, i'll still be happy.

questions that some of you might have...

1. would i recommend this procedure? hell yes. even though it's only the day after my surgery and my vision's still a little fuzzy, I CAN SEE WITHOUT GLASSES! really! i can read road signs, i can look at the clock from my bed and know what time it is without having to squint or fumble around for a pair of specs.

2. how much did it cost? normal lasik at the place i went to (barnet dulaney perkins) is $1495 per eye. intralasik, which is what i had, where they replace the blade with the laser in making the flap is $1795 per eye. yes, there are places in phoenix that do it for much less; i've seen it as cheap as $499 per eye, but to be honest, i'm a bit worried about places that are dropping their prices like that just so they can get people in the door. maybe they're just as good as anywhere else, but for something like this, i wouldn't take chances. oh yeah, and if you're considering the intralasik option, from what i understand, barnet dulaney is the only place in arizona that has it.

a couple other things that i forgot. it was asked in a comment on an earlier post what my original prescription was. left eye: -3.00, right eye: -2.50 -- which is bad enough that without my glasses i can't see the E at the top of the chart.

and i thought i had mentioned this but in re-reading my entry, i guess i hadn't. those three pills they gave me to relax me? didn't work. the woman sitting next to me in the pre-op area said that hers were kicking in, no problem, but i think i had about a 100 pound weight advantage on her (i weigh 235, for anyone who cares) and didn't get any extra pills. i probably should've asked for an extra valium. ah well.

if any of you have questions, post 'em in a comment and i'll answer as best i can.
Mood: impressed

Date: 2002-05-27 01:26
Subject: movie review: insomnia
note: there might be a line or two in this review that would be considered a spoiler. so feel free to skip this post.

tonight's harangue is devoted to yet another piece of drivel and tripe coming out of hollywood that's expected to sell itself based on the star power of the two primary actors (robin williams and al pacino) because it lacks any sort of interesting storyline to actually keep the audience involved. as you might be guessing by this point, i didn't really enjoy this movie. maybe a_cleveland (Editor's note - this is the amanda person that I was referencing in other posts - we were friends, obviously, and I think we hung out from time to time.) is right, maybe i just don't like any movies. i like to think that i have high standards.

anyway... here's what moviefone.com has to say for a brief summary: "Al Pacino stars as a city police detective sent to investigate a murder in a small Alaska town in this big-budget remake of the icy 1997 Norwegian film of the same name. 'Memento' director Christopher Nolan helms the project, in which a terrible accident forces the detective into a psychological cat-and-mouse game with the primary suspect (Robin Williams). Hilary Swank plays a suspicious local detective trying to make sense of Pacino's erratic behavior."

whatever. williams isn't scary, not in that diabolical sense, nor in that quiet psychopathic mindfucking way either. maybe the most malevolent murderers and criminals are the ones that can calmly rationalize their way through their crimes, which i think was the goal in this movie, but in order to do so successfully in an entertaining manner, there has to be some kind of underlying evil that shows itself in the character's development. i like robin williams, but he wasn't convincing. pacino did the best he could with the plot available, which isn't saying too much. the rest of the film was rather forgettable. and the ending? think reservoir dogs, but without the entertaining music played and the ear removal.

at least it was nice to be able to see a movie without having to wear my glasses. =)

Time: 01:28
Subject: post-lasik update, day 2.
everything is coming along rather well i've noticed that in some respects my night vision appears to be better than it was before, and in other respects it's a little worse. i do see halos around bright lights in the dark, which is one of those common artifacts of having lasik, but it doesn't really bother me, and it seems to have gone down a bit since yesterday, so we'll see how it goes. i no longer have that feeling of having something in my eye. and the funny thing - even though it's only been two days, i've almost completely forgotten what my vision used to be like - it's as if i never wore glasses at all, yet at the same time there's still a certain sense of amazement that comes with being able to wake up in the morning and be able to see. it almost feels like a dream. weird. but in a good way.

Time: 12:52
Subject: suckage. or should i say leakage...
last night when i was heading out to the movies i noticed a rather large water stain in my garage which hadn't been there before... or maybe it had, and i just hadn't paid enough attention. this morning i went out to check to see whether or not my eyes were playing tricks on me, and indeed they were not. the brown patch has grown quite a bit. so apparently i have a leak somewhere. maybe it's in my attic and coming down from the air conditioner, maybe it's somehow related to the hot water heater. i have no idea. and i don't know whether i should call a plumber, an a/c guy, or somebody else to come out and look at it. fuckity fuck fuck. bleh... i guess i'll go investigate further.
Mood: annoyed

Date: 2002-05-28 01:13
Subject: there is a growing disturbance in the force.
most of you that read this probably won't have any idea what i'm talking about, so if today's babbling seems incoherent and nonsensical, please return to your regularly scheduled programming.

i don't deal with things of a spiritual/magickal nature on a regular basis. sure, i read tarot, although i'm well out of practice, and i've done a ritual here or there for one thing or another, but by and large it is not a regular part of my life, usually because i'm too busy doing other things or simply not "tuned in" to the extent that other people i know or have known seem to be. coming from a very scientific background, despite a lot of "weirdness" which i've seen or experienced over the last 10 years, the skeptical side of me often wins out when i get into debates with myself over the existence of certain things or whether or not certain things are possible. sometimes seeing isn't always believing.

i'm not empathic (if anything, i'm probably the world's most skilled anti-empath), i don't see dead people, and the ghost(s) that were at one time taking up residence in my house have long since vacated the premises. casper has left the building! however, every once in awhile, there seems to be a convergence of events which tries to pull me back into this arena - whether it be conversations that i have with certain people (or even people i don't know), books that i come across, or just random thoughts, feelings, and observations that pop into my head that don't seem to be readily whisked away, no matter how hard i might try to invoke science, logic, and the consensus view of possible vs. impossible, or simply try to attribute it to that certain amount of mental instability that lies within all of us.

past experience has shown that when this happens, something rather large and unpleasant is looming on the horizon.
all i have to say is...

here we go again.
Mood: distressed

Time: 15:06
Subject: lasik update, day 3.5
i think my vision has improved a bit - prior to my surgery, i was running my 19" monitor at 1920x1200 resolution. after the surgery, i had to crank that down to 1280x1024 or it was hard on the eyeballs, especially if i wanted to actually do anything which required me to look at the screen for extended periods of time (like work, heh). today i put it back to 1600x1200 and it's quite usable. just for the hell of it, i also downloaded an eye chart off the net and printed it out - i'm up to 20/18 in my left eye, and about 20/25 in my right eye, which somehow works out to 20/15 with both eyes open.

one thing i am sorta peeved about, though, with this whole eye business. it's my fault, though, so i can't bitch at the doctor. when i originally went for my pre-op evaluation, the prescription in my right eye was -2.50 before they dilated my eyes, and -2.00 afterwards. i asked the surgeon about this on laser day, and he recommended doing a correction of -2.25, right in the middle of the two. who am i to argue, he's been doing this a lot longer than i have, right? well, i should've said "fuck that, gimmee the whole thing." my right eye used to be the better of the two, and now it's the worse. doing the eye-chart test thingy, there's a noticeable difference between my vision on the left and my vision on the right. maybe this will improve a bit more over the coming weeks, i dunno, or maybe i'll end up going back for an enhancement on my right eye later this year. maybe i'll just say "fuck it" and be happy that i'm spectacle-free.
Mood: mildly peeved

Date: 2002-05-29 02:38
Subject: movie review: vanilla sky
spoilers enclosed, don't read if you don't want to see them
i wanted to see this in the theatre, but didn't get the chance, and lo and behold, ben produces a "rent one, get one free" coupon for blockbuster, and suggests that we head over there and grab something entertaining. had it not been for the mention of this movie in new_zero_kanada's LJ, i'd probably have done what i usually do when i go in search of movie rentals: have a long list in my head of things that i want to see that completely leaves the building when i actually get there and start perusing the titles. anyway, without further ado...

a_cleveland, you're wrong, i do like some movies, and this was one of them. first, because it wasn't predictable. sure, there were clues that pointed to the ending that popped up throughout the film that i now recognize in retrospect, but i really didn't expect the ending until, well, the ending. second, because although it might be argued that the ending was a sort of cheese-out, akin to what kids do when they're little and writing stories and then end it with "and then i woke up" (come on, admit it, you've all done this!), it also gave some interesting food for thought. would you consider cryogenic freezing? and what if they could do something akin to the lucid dream system? would you want it? and if you were faced with the choice that tom cruise's character had at the end, which would you choose? life in the real world, or a return to the dreamtime, much like cypher's wish in "the matrix"?

ben said that he'd prefer to stay in the lucid dream. i don't know if my choice is quite so simple. on one hand, i'd really like to know what had become of the world after 150 years. on the other hand, there's something to be said for being able to shape your own reality (beyond what i believe is already possible). although i wonder - in the lucid dream, do you age? would you wonder, after 50 years, why you hadn't gotten any older? or would you eventually grow old and die in your dreamstate and then start over again with a fresh memory?

tomorrow i'll watch the other flick we rented, something else that i missed in the theatres - k-pax. stay tuned.

Time: 16:33
Subject: slow medical research...
saw an article today on MSNBC that links creative genius to mental illness. i find it laughable that here we are in 2002 and researchers are finally starting to notice this. i remember sitting around a table at a friend's house as far back as 1994, and this very topic came up. the four of us concluded that virtually everyone we knew that had some sort of special talent of the mind (intelligence, creativity, etc) had some measure of mental instability. or, as dave towers had put it (paraphrasing) when you're on the far end of the bell curve in one aspect, there's going to have to be something else that compensates for it.

now, let's think about this for a moment. anyone that's ever played an RPG knows that you get a certain amount of "ability points" as you're creating your character or designing some implement. you can make something strong, but it may be slow. or you can make it super fast, but it might not have much armor or firepower. it isn't hard to translate this analogy to the human consciousness. imagine that when you're born, you have a certain number of ability points, determined largely by your genetics. you may or may not have control over how some of these points are allocated as you're growing up, but either way, the number of points generally remains fixed. you can be really good at a couple things, and really shitty at a few things so that it all balances out. or you can have an approximately equal distribution among various traits.

i'm inclined to think that as you progress through your life, you DO have a certain amount of control over how these points are allocated, though, even if you only look at it in terms of the types of activities that you pursue. spend all your time with your nose in a book or glued to a computer screen, you may find that your "intelligence" score goes up, but your "social" score goes down. or, if you spend all your time working on athletics, your agility score and strength and whatever might go up, but your intelligence probably will just stay put, hence the stereotypical dumb jock. or, i suppose you can attempt to boost creativity and intelligence and whatever else by putting massive amounts of time into study and practice, but then sleep may suffer, which will overall have a negative impact on most, if not all, of your "scores".

note that this last paragraph i've pulled completely out of my ass, and one might accuse me of having played a little too much AD&D when i was younger (but you'd be wrong). however, of all the people i've met in this world, i've never met ANYONE who was simultaneously intellectually brilliant, athletically skilled, creative, mentally stable, artistically gifted, etc, etc. This is still true today - Ed.

Time: 16:34
Subject: one more random thought.
i've been putting drops in my eyes for the last several days as a result of lasik, and i've noticed that within five minutes or so of putting them in, i can taste the damn stuff as it drips down the back of my throat. which leads me to the dumb question of the day.

is it possible to breathe through your eyes?

obviously there is some connection between eyes and lungs, or at least throat, as i've empirically discovered. but could such a connection actually be exploited for oxygenation purposes, or would that simply be impossible?
Mood: contemplative

Date: 2002-05-30 13:13
Subject: quizzin'....
as i watch the lines of text pass by on the screen, telling me that my compile is moving along rather nicely, i find that a quiz is a great way to pass the time. =/
Quiz name: What Type of Villain are You?
Result: Not sure - I think it's supervillain
Meaning: No idea.

Time: 20:22
Subject: something to do.
so today i've finally started sitting down and writing code to test out some theories i've had about the use of genetic programming techniques for stock-market simulation. apparently, there is a nontrivial amount of work that's already been done in this area, although i've unfortunately only been able to find one paper online that i can actually read, and a book which sounds like it would be quite promising is scheduled for publication later this year.

i still need to track down a few good sources for historical stock data (that hopefully don't cost lots of money) and then figure out the best model for a fitness function, but if it works, well, hey, score one for me.

exploit the system to your best advantage. or, as we used to say in debate, a less-politically-correct phrasing... skull-fuck the weak. =)
Mood: working

Date: 2002-05-31 02:11
Subject: lesson learned...
i should've expected this, but i didn't really know how bad it would be until i finished the first pass of the program and tried it out. right now my little simulator has access to a small cluster of workstations (heh, all of 2 of them) that are linked up with MPI and NFS and SSH and all those other nifty network-processing tools. i've written my simulator to take advantage of such things; if i had a cluster of 16 servers here set up in a beowulf-style configuration, it would run on them all, sharing the workload and such so that in theory, the overall task would complete more quickly.

unfortunately, there's such a disparity in the processing power between the two machines that when i try to switch to parallel execution, i actually end up SLOWING things down. A LOT. to run the basic sim. with test data (not actual market data; i'll be running the first pass of that one over the weekend) takes 36.6 seconds on aerith, which is an athlon 1.1GHz. add in khryseila, a dual-processor box with 2 old-school pentium pros, and it jumps to 53.8 seconds. so the end result is that i spent a bunch of time configuring the second box to be a part of my cluster and it turns out that i can't use it. while i have to say that this thoroughly sucks, i also can't say i'm surprised. the libraries that i'm using don't have the granularity of control necessary to break down the processing requirements in such a way that i can allocate a significantly smaller portion of the work to khryseila. and i'm thinking that because there's a considerable difference in speed between the two boxes, even if i were to find or develop some tools to do this, it really wouldn't be worth the added processing speed.

ah well, if nothing else, the whole thing has prepared me for future additions to my little family o' servers. how nice it would be to have a small collection of rackmount boxes, say, 16 of them, each with a dual athlon configuration on each one. if this idea ends up showing any sort of promise whatsoever, i might actually be able to justify to myself that i need to spend the 20k or whatever it would cost to buy such a thing. =/
Music: Junk Project - Composure (Solar Stone RMX)
Mood: mellow

Time: 16:21
Subject: market prediction, pass 1
so far, this experiment has proven to be a massive failure. i didn't really expect much success on the first go-round, since i'm basically flying blind and making it all up as i go along, in the hopes that i'll get smarter along the way. i did, however, find one link to a project done by a former university of utah student specifically on the use of GA/GP in stock price prediction. i emailed her this afternoon to see if i could get a copy of the paper that she wrote, because i'd like more detail than what the summary provides, so we'll see what happens. in any event, one thing that i hadn't really thought to consider that she mentions is looking at percentage change instead of absolute share value, so that's what i'm going to be trying with pass 2 of the simulator. back to the compiler.

Time: 20:09
Subject: patterns and trends and stocks, oh my!
ok, so we all know that the first attempt was a failure. i was trying to model the stock price with a function that looks like this:

P = ax + bx^2 + cx^3 + dsin(ex) + fcos(gx) + h

the idea here is that the GA would evolve appropriate values for coefficients a-h, and i could plug in the day (x) and get back the price. why'd i pick something like that? bleh, fucked if i know, it seemed like a good idea at the time. i thought that perhaps i could use the linear/quadratic/cubic terms to model longer-term growth while the trig functions would take care of short-term oscillation. bzzt! i suppose it'd have been great if this would've worked, because then i'd have a better tool to do far-future predictions to test my model. but, eh, plan B.

looking back on it, one of the problems with the above function is that it essentially gives equal weight to all points along the curve, which means that when i've got two years worth of data, the price of a stock two years ago has as much to do with its price today as its price yesterday, and this is most assuredly a bogus claim. some stocks are certainly more volatile than others and some tend to remain relatively constant, but it would make more sense that the price of a stock today and over the last few weeks (couple months, perhaps?) is much more relevant to what its price is going to be tomorrow. so i've changed a few parameters of the GA library itself and now i'm using a different function where the price of the stock on day N+1 is a linear combination of the prices of the stock from day 1 to day N.

this actually seems to work reasonably well, not to mention that it speeds up the program execution a great deal. running a population size of 200 through 3000 generations on known data generally leads to an evaluation function valued somewhere on the order of 10^-6 (smaller is better in this case). what does that mean? it means that if the actual value of the stock price is 13.00, i'm generating values that are in the range of 12.999999 to 13.000001. this is a good thing, and hopefully means that when applying the results to unknown data (such as tomorrow's expected price) that i'll be close enough that it's useful.

one thing i've noticed is that each run of the GA gives a different result set, which suggests that the best way to go in the long run will be to run several simulations and average them together. case in point: three trials on the last 10 days worth of data for Network Appliance (NTAP) yield the following predictions for today's closing price:

expected value 1 = 13.10800052169
expected value 2 = 12.55465648
expected value 3 = 12.9288608367

this averages out to approximately 12.86. NTAP closed today at 13.01. i'm off by 1.15 percent. not too shabby, but i'm sure this can be improved by at least a factor of 10 with some or all of the other ideas that are floating about in my head. i'll probably be fiddling with this all weekend, so come sunday night i'll post my prediction for the monday closing price of NTAP and we'll see how i do. =)

one other thing that i think is worth noting. even with the limited trials i have here, although i wasn't able to nail today's price, i DID successfully manage to predict the DIRECTION that the stock went. even if i can't pull off a super-accurate quantitative model, if i can get accurate, consistent, qualitative data, then that alone is a winner. if you KNOW that tomorrow a stock is going to close higher, then you can buy today, sell tomorrow, make some money. same thing in reverse if you know it's going to go down. we shall see.
Mood: excited

And so ends the merry, merry month of May.